ANALYSIS | With less than a year until the presidential election, we can focus more sharply on the political issues that will likely come to a head in the traditional debates next October, pitting Barack Obama and his Republican challenger in a televised war of words.
The primary issue, and one that has been primary since autumn 2008, is the weak national economy. According to Australia Network News, Barack Obama's re-election hinges on the strength of the U.S. economy in 2012. Voters must ask if his team in the White House done enough to earn a second chance to wrangle America's ailing dollars and deflating federal budget, or if any of the current GOP challengers could reasonably do any better?
As Bill Clinton's campaign famously said in 1992: "It's the economy, stupid." And Clinton still agrees, says the Huffington Post. Obama has scored foreign policy successes with the death of Osama bin Laden, the toppling of Gadhafi's regime in Libya, and figuring out an exit strategy for Iraq... but, according to the Post, this may matter little next November. Foreign policy is always trumped by domestic policy during a recession, as George Bush Sr. learned in '92. The experienced statesman was limited to one term as president when upstart Democrat Bill Clinton made the winner of the Gulf War and Cold War look naive on the American economy and the lives of middle-class workers.
Obama could easily suffer a similar fate, with his foreign policy credentials erased by a lagging economy.
The second big issue will likely be national security and foreign military intervention, with the Iraq pullout, the ongoing war in Afghanistan, and the ever-present mischief of Iran and Pakistan continuing to loom large. Iran's oft-bemoaned nuclear arms ambitions are once again in the news this week as the International Atomic Energy Agency prepares to report Iran's nuclear status to the United Nations, says Fox News. Will North Korea and Pakistan be indicated as illegal assisters in Iran's nuke ambitions?
This is where a sitting president always has an advantage: Non-incumbents, by nature of being non-incumbents, have less foreign policy experience. Obama can hit any of the Republicans with the honest charge that they lack his foreign policy chops...will it be enough to make independent voters overlook a questionable record on the economy? If Iran's nuclear ambitions, North Korea's nukes and missile programs, or Pakistan's nuclear security becomes a hot 2012 topic, the public may prefer to "not change horses in midstream" and keep things stable.
The third big issue, perhaps spurred by the allegations against GOP frontrunner Herman Cain, as detailed by CNN.com, may become personal ethics. Eager to topple Cain, the Republican candidates may begin touting themselves as paragons of virtue. While this may do little to hurt a nearly scandal-free Obama, it may help distract from other issues that may provide Obama an advantage, keeping the playing field level between a scandal-free GOP challenger and the incumbent as they debate morals and ethics.
One recent issue that may become a hot topic involves the controversial spanking/whipping given by Texas judge William Adams to his teenage daughter, which became a viral sensation after being posted on the Internet. Detailed by CBS News, the video and subsequent media furor has elicited tons of viewer response. With the blogosphere abuzz, will the president and his Republican rivals be asked their own opinions on corporal punishment? Stay tuned!
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